A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
